Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
